Euro 2008 Semi-final: Spain 3-0 Russia

These two teams met in their opening match of the tournament, with Spain convincing 4-1 winners. Since then, Russia had surprised everybody by not just recovering but improving enough to demolish the Netherlands in the quarter-finals, while Spain had been winning withut exactly bowling people over.

And yet this game finished with an almost identical three-goal victory for Spain. Russia apparently peaked in the previous round, while Spain have taken the confidence from their penalty win over Italy and are cruising into the final. (Not only have they vanquished their nemesis Italy, but now they've overcome the bad luck that was supposedly attached to their yellow away kits. Although those are still fugly. Whatever happened to the white away kits? I liked those. Especially in the rain. Um.)

The possession stats may show that it was pretty even, but they don't tell even close to the whole story, because it seemed like Spain spend two-thirds of the game in the Russian half. Maybe the more important statistic is shots on goal -- 11 for Spain versus just one for Russia. Iker Casillas had so little to do, he could've spent the game bedazzling the uneven hem of his self-tailored jersey and making fun of Sergio Ramos hair. Both of which are worthwhile ways to spend your time, really.

Spain were on top from the start, although Russia had a few good spells too. But Andrei Arshavin, who had supposedly become the player of the tournament over the past couple games, was a non-factor here, and because of that, Roman Pavlyuchenko was starved of service. It also helped Spain that, defensively, Sergio Ramos was having a much better game than their first match-up, winning the battle with Yuri Zhirkov on that wing.

Despite their dominance, Spain weren't able to break down the Russians at first. And they suffered a blow when David Villa pulled a muscle in his calf and had to be substituted after just half an hour. Cesc Fabregas came on for Villa, to play in the whole behind Fernando Torres, somewhat surprisingly as it meant a change of formation. But ironically, replacing a midfielder with a striker enabled Spain to find holes in the Russian defence and open up the play.

They were rewarded for their excellent play early in the second half, as Xavi opened the scoring in the 50th minute after Andres Iniesta played him into the box. Iniesta and Xavi haven't had the greatest of tournaments, in my opinion -- not awful, but not always scintillating -- but they were both pivotal in this game, not just in the buildup play but creating goals too.

Russia made a couple of substitutions almost immediately, bringing on first Diniyar Bilyaletdinov for Igor Semshov and then Dmitry Sychev for Ivan Saenko, as Guus Hiddink attempted to get his team back into the game. But it didn't help them much, as Spain continued to attack. Fernando Torres, in particular, had a couple of good chances but failed to score. I don't know if it was because of the wet pitch or what, but all game he seemed to keep slightly miscontrolling the ball as he turned to shoot.

Still, I was a bit surprised to see Torres taken off for Daniel Guiza in the 69th minute -- along with Xabi Alonso in place of Xavi -- because Guiza hasn't impressed me so far. And I say that despite the fact that he scored his second goal of the tournament just a few minutes later. Fabregas dinked the ball over the defence to him, and he took it down well on his chest before putting it past Igor Akinfeev with ease.

That second goal gave Spain a bit of a cushion, and they were able to just play keep-ball and sit a bit deeper. Still, they added to their lead further in the 82nd minute, after yet another lovely passing move, Iniesta out to Fabregas on the left, who slotted it into the centre for a nice finish David Silva. That was nice to see, because Silva deserved a goal for his good play all tournament, while Cesc has certainly done enough to guarantee himself a starting spot in the final -- unless, of course, Luis Aragones has another spell of insanity.

Russia's heads were already down after Spain's second goal and they were really out of it after the third, just waiting for the final whistle. I think they were worn down from 90 minutes of chasing Spain around trying to get the ball back. Still, they deserve credit for getting themselves this far, and with style -- while Spain, for once, have lived up to their pre-tournament hype. But they do have one game left in which to choke.

Euro 2008: Quarter-final 3

Russia 3-1 Netherlands (aet)
Another semi-final, another surprise result. The Netherlands, who had been the team of the tournament up until now, are out, and Russia have been upgraded from dark horses to genuine contenders. Guus Hiddink has further enhanced his reputation as someone who can produce the improbable, but a lot of the credit also has to go to Andrei Arshavin, who was once again pulling the strings for Russia and befuddling their opponents.

It wasn't all about Arshavin, though; the whole team has improved remarkably since the defeat against Spain in their opening game, picking up steam with a their comprehensive victory over Sweden. And they came out to win this one from the outset, forcing the Netherlands back by simply outplaying them. The Dutch team were supposed to be the favourites, but there was none of the caution from Russia that you might have expected. Although the Netherlands did manage to work themselves into the game more as the first half went on, they were still second best heading into half-time.

Marco van Basten attempted to invigorate his team by bringing on Robin van Persie for Dirk Kuyt, and the substitution did have an impact, as he created a couple of good chances. But it was Russia who scored in the 55th minute, as Sergei Semak's cross was volleyed into the net by Roman Pavlyuchenko, giving Edwin van der Sar no time to react.

That meant that the Netherlands had to really go all out in the search for a goal, but I think they don't react well to being allowed lots of possession rather than counter-attacking. They were mostly reduced to long-range shots as the Russian defence held firm, while it was Russia pulling them apart on the counter. Finally, in the 86th minute, Ruud van Nistelrooy found the equalizer, heading the ball in from Wesley Sneijder's free kick to send the game into extra-time.

That extra-time could have gone much differently had it not been for an unusual refereeing decision: Denis Kolodin was initially shown a second yellow card for a foul on Sneijder, but the referee then consulted with the linesman and decided that the ball had gone out of play first -- it hadn't -- and took the card back. Probably the wrong decision; but on the other hand, with the way Russia were playing, they might well have won even with only 10 men.

They were certainly the better team throughout extra time as it was. The Netherlands needed to build on the momentum of that late equalizer, but Russia just kept attacking, and the longer it went on, the more they were likely to win. And in the 112th minute, Dmitriy Torbinskiy popped up with the winning goal, a cross from -- who else? -- Arshavin that went over van der Sar and was tipped in at the far post. Arshavin killed the game off with a third goal a few minutes later, running onto a throw-in, getting behind the defenders and sending the ball through van der Sar's legs. (I feel a bit bad for Van der Sar; he'd kept his team in the game up till then and his defenders were pretty much useless.)

Anyway, it's nice to see an underdog team winning games like this -- rather than, you know, pulling a Greece -- but at the same time I'm a bit disappointed that the Netherlands are out. Partly because I'm wondering who will take up the mantle of wearing the tightest shirts at the tournament, now that both they and Portugal have been eliminated.


Bad hair of the day award: Another prize for man-of-the-match Andrei Arshavin. 27 years old and he still looks like his mother cuts his hair with a bowl and a pair of kitchen shears.

Euro 2008: Day 12

Spain 2-1 Greece
Ok, I realize that this was an essentially meaningless game, with Greece already eliminated and Spain having won the group. But I still thought it was great, for one simple reason: Xabi Alonso wearing the captain's armband for Spain. That is awesome. (Yes, I am easily pleased. Shut up.)

Anyway, Spain made a whopping 10 changes to the lineup from their last game, which could have been dangerous -- remember the last World Cup, when Luis Aragones sent out the reserves to scrape a win against Saudi Arabia, draining all their momentum before meeting France in the round of 16. And it's possible that something similar could happed when Spain go up against Italy this time, but I think they should be encouraged by the fact that they came back to win the game after going behind. Also, I am clinging blindly to optimism.

You could kind of see, though, why none of these guys (aside from Andres Iniesta) are in the starting lineup regularly. Xabi was the only one who really made a strong case for his inclusion; he bossed the game from a position deep in midfield, and nearly scored three or four times, including a shot from his own half that was just barely wide and had the Greek keeper slamming into the post as he scrambled to backtrack.

Although they weren't as incisive as in their first two games -- they really missed David Villa and/or Fernando Torres up front -- Spain still dominated for most of the game, and Greece only took the lead against the run of play. It was a stereotypical Greek goal -- a header from Angelos Charisteas -- and some stereotypical Spanish defending, as they basically stood there and watched him. Oops.

Ruben de la Red equalized for Spain in the second half, from a knock-down by Dani Guiza, and Guiza scored himself with a header in the 87th minute to make it three wins in a row for Spain. And then he did some sort of stupid archer celebration -- apparently he is the La Liga equivalent of Robbie Keane. Now that's something to aspire to.

A final note: I have no idea why anybody would think that Gareth Barry is worth more money than Xabi Alonso. That makes less than zero sense to me. It's just a shame that more people would have watched this game so they could see for themselves.


Russia 2-0 Sweden
Has the real Russia finally shown up? After a pitiful loss to Spain and a so-so win against Greece, Russia claimed the last quarter-final spot with an impressive performance that partially explains why they're here instead of England. They got a huge boost from the return of Andrei Arshavin, who had been suspended for the first two games; he orchestrated most of Russia's best moves and just seemed to make the whole team look better around him. Plus, of course, you can't discount the Guus Hiddink factor. He has a great track record of getting his teams through to the knock-out rounds of international tournaments, and he's done it again in what was a must-win game for Russia (Sweden could have settled for a draw).

Russia were in control right from the beginning of the game, and they took the lead after less than half an hour, as Aleksandr Anyukov set up Roman Pavlyuchenko to sweep the ball in at the far post. Sweden had a couple chances to equalize, but Arshavin made it 2-0 for Russia in the 50th minute, finishing off a great counter-attack from Yuri Zhirkov's pass from the left wing (Zhirkov, incidentally, has looked pretty good in all three games so far). The Swedish defence, which had previously been so solid, fell apart under the whirlwind Russian attack.

Sweden briefly and half-heartedly attempted a comeback, but it was already too late. They never really looked like scoring one goal, let alone two. Zlatan Ibrahimovic was hobbling around despite painkilling injections in his dodgy knee at half-time -- his best moment was probably the attempt at a back-heeled flick over his head in the first minute of the game. And Henrik Larsson was showing the effects of being approximately 136 years old and already having played almost the full 90 minutes in their first two games. I lost track of the number of times the commentators referred to how "experienced" the Swedish team was -- which, as far as I can tell, just means "old."

(I am pleased to point out that I picked Russia to go through from this group along with Spain. Go me.)


So, all of the quarter-final slots are now filled, and it looks very promishing for the remainder of the tournament, because all eight of the remaining teams are more focussed on attacking than defending -- even Italy's traditional catennaccio has kind of gone out the window, considering that they're playing four fullbacks across the back line. I'm not even going to try to predict what will happen. But if I were to wish for anything, it would be for (1) Spain not to collapse for a change and (2) Cristiano Ronaldo to cry like a leetle baby. I live in hope.


Next up: Russia are rewarded by facing the Netherlands on Saturday, while Spain play Italy on Sunday.

Bad hair of the day award: Spain's Sergio Garcia, who was sporting a silly razor-thin beard and a ponytail that was roughly as big as he is.

Euro 2008: Day 8

Spain 2-1 Sweden
I expected this to be a tougher game for Spain, because Sweden are more disciplined team and weren't likely to push forward and leave space for them the way Russia did in the opening match. Although Spain had the vast majority of both the possession and shots on goal, it was more difficult for them to get in behind the defenders and create clear chances (plus, all the Swedish players were about a foot taller than the Spanish ones). But they took the lead after just 15 minutes -- from a corner rather than open play -- with Fernando Torres sticking a boot out to turn it into the net. Let's hope nobody broke anything celebrating this time, although from the way they all piled on top of each other, you never know.

Sweden almost equalized immediately, but Johan Elmander's shot went into the side netting; a few minutes later, Henrik Larsson attempted to chip the keeper but it went just over the crossbar. And then Carles Puyol went off with a thigh strain, which is a bit worrisome because he's often the only Spanish player who remembers that he's actually supposed to defend. Sweden took advantage of Spain's defensive frailty to equalize after half an hour, as Zlatan Ibrahimovic held off Sergio Ramos in the box to turn and shoot low past Iker Casillas. (Saint Iker, for once, looked as if he maybe could have done better, but Ramos was certainly useless.)

Spain, I think, were a bit shocked by the goal, and Sweden looked like the stronger team as the first half wound down. Spain did have a good shout for a penalty ignored just before halftime, when David Silva was absolutely flattened in the box by Elmander, but really they were doing well just to have held out at 1-1. They could also count themselves fortunate that Ibrahimovic had to be substituted at halftime, presumably because his knee was playing up again.

Spain started the second half much better, although still not well enough. Luis Aragones gambled by using up his two remaining subs and sending on Cesc Fabregas and Santi Cazorla (dear commentator: NOT CAZOLRA) for Xavi and Andres Iniesta in an attempt to force a breakthrough. The changes did have an impact, as Spain had a series of chances, but they were all foiled through a combination of good defending by Sweden and Spanish players trying to take one touch too many. Learn from Arsenal, boys: Pretty passes are nice, but they're no good if you don't score. Just ask Cesc.

The longer the second half went on, the more opportunities Spain had and the more they got frustrated by their inability to score. (What they really should have been frustrated about was that they left themselves exposed at the back more than once.) But finally, in the second minute of stoppage time, David Villa scored the winner. He ran onto a rare long ball forward from Joan Capdevilla, beating two defenders to the ball, and sidefooted it past the keeper into the far corner with a great finish. Spain deserved the win, overall -- they could have crumpled after Sweden scored -- but I think there are still some question marks about their ability to beat the really tough teams in this tournament.


Russia 1-0 Greece
Time for those of us who aren't fans of anti-football -- or of excessive honking on the Danforth -- to celebrate: Greece are out of Euro 2004. The only team to be eliminated without scoring a goal, although they could get themselves a consolation prize in their meaningless final game against Spain.

Actually, I should give the Greeks credit for their contribution to a game that I thought was going to be absolutely horrible but turned out to be pretty good. Not always the best quality football on display, but entertaining nonetheless. It probably helped that Russia took the lead after half an hour, as Antonis Nikopolidis ended his international career with a goalkeeping howler, charging out of his net and then just standing and watching as Sergei Semak hooked the ball back across the net for Konstantin Zyrianov to tap in.

That forced the Greeks to come out and attack more, although at the expense of their defensive solidity. Roman Pavlyuchenko had a series of chances to extend Russia's lead, but wasted them all, mostly through wayward finishing plus the odd offside flag. Angelos Charisteas did manage to put the ball in the net for Greece in the 86th minute, but it was ruled out for offside -- a very close call, I think.

Russia will have playmaker Andrei Arshavin back for their decisive final match against Sweden, which should help them up front. The question is whether their defence is as competent as it looked against Greece, or as hopeless as it was against Spain.


Next up in Group D: Spain v. Greece and Russia v. Sweden, both at 2:30 pm (ET) on Wednesday

Bad hair of the day award: I had a tough time choosing between Sotiris Kyrgiakos and Giannis Amanatidis for Greece, but I have to go with Amanitidis (he's the one on the right) because it looks like he hasn't been near a barber since Euro 2004, whereas Kyrgiakos may have actually shaved recently.

Euro 2008: Day 4

Spain 4-1 Russia
Oh, Spain. This is why I both love you and hate you: the brilliant attacking play, the significantly less than brilliant defending... It was all sort of reminiscent of the World Cup in 2006, when they beat Ukraine 4-0 in their opening match, won their group easily, and then proceeded to get beaten by France at the first knockout stage. (Which is exactly what could happen here, depending on the results over in Group C. Oh joy.)

Luis Aragones made the bold decision to start with a 4-4-2 formation rather than the variations on 4-3-3 they'd been playing up until now, with Fernando Torres and David Villa partnered up front and Marcos Senna doing the dirty work behind the trio of pint-sized midfielders. And the combination of Villa and Torres worked beautifully, exemplified by Spain's first goal: Torres broke through the defence and squared the ball to Villa for a simple finish. Villa added a second goal for Spain just before halftime, with a perfectly timed run onto a pass from Andres Iniesta (possibly the world's palest Spaniard), leaving the keeper helpless as he slotted the ball through Igor Akinfeev's legs. Spain still like to ping the ball around midfield maybe a little too much, but they also seem to have learned about the effectiveness of letting their strikers run at the defence.

Fernando Torres didn't get as many chances to do that as he might have liked, but he had a good game nonetheless before he was hauled off early in the second half (still carrying a bit of a knock on his ankle). Aragones, meanwhile, got to show off the array of talent he'd left on the bench to start with, bringing on first Cesc Fabregas and then Santi Cazorla and Xabi Alonso. And it was Fabregas who set up the third goal in Villa's hat-trick with a great diagonal ball, Villa cutting inside the defender and then wrong-footing the keeper. God knows that Villa can have his off days too, but based on this game, he's an utterly lethal finisher when he wants to be.

Spain's problems, as you might've expected, were at the back. Russia was the technically inferior team -- taking two touches or more to do what the Spaniards would have done in one touch or two -- but when they did get forward as far as the 18-yard box, the Spanish defence looked pretty shaky. A lot of times it seemed like they were all just waiting for someone else to step in and clear the ball, and they were saved by the post at least once. How Carles Puyol wasn't out there cracking heads together I don't know. (Although I should point out that I don't think Iker Casillas had to make any really spectacular saves.) Sergio Ramos, in particular, seemed to have forgotten that being a defender means, you know, tackling and stuff like that. Maybe he was worried about messing up his hair.

Anyway, they finally paid for it with five minutes to go: A Russian corner, flicked on and then headed home by Roman Pavlyuchenko at the back post, with Joan Capdevilla caught flat-footed. Their consolation goal was cancelled out in the 90th minute, though, by Cesc Fabregas's first international goal as he headed in the rebound from Xavi's volley.

So much for my prediction that Russia could surprise people in this tournament. They may still be good enough to beat either Sweden or Greece, but that's hardly a ringing endorsement. As for Spain: learn to defend, please. I beg you. Because David Villa and his idiotic soul-patch are not going to pop up and score a hat-trick in every game. The happiest people after this result, actually, might be in Valencia, because now they can add a few million more pounds on to his valuation. Gentlemen, start your chequebooks.


Sweden 2-0 Greece
Okay, I still don't understand how Greece won this back in 2004. Because they have basically the same team, the same coach, the same tactics, and yet they were essentially useless against Sweden, who are not exactly one of the giants of the footballing world. I realize that last time, Greece scored most of their goals from set pieces, but those were pretty mediocre here, and their main strategy seemed to be passing the ball sluggishly back and forth across their defence.

Sweden, on the other hand, were okay but hardly stellar for the first hour or so -- the highlight was probably a header off the crossbar by Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the first half. Finally, though, in the 65th minute, Ibrahimovic produced a moment of brilliance, collecting a throw-in and exchanging passes with Henrik Larsson before slicing his shot past Antonis Nikopolidis into the top corner of the net. It was his first international goal for more than two years, and also probably the goal of the tournament so far. (And maybe a bit of payback after a Greek player kicked him in the nuts earlier in the game.)

The Swedes put the game away with a second goal five minutes later, scrambled into the net by Petter Hansson -- who'd almost headed the ball into his own goal not long before that -- after a couple attempted shots by Freddie Ljungberg and Johan Elmander. Certainly not the prettiest goal, but it still counts. Greece were never likely to get back into the game after that; they did push forward more, but it was hard to see them scoring one goal, let alone two.


Next up in Group D: sweden v. Spain and Greece v. Russia, both on Saturday

Bad hair of the day award: Joint honours go to Carles Puyol and Sergio Ramos. Puyol's hair was less insane than usual thanks to the rain, but Ramos' just bugs me. You're not starring in a Pantene commercial, Sergio; just cut it already.

Euro 2008 Preview: Group D

Greece, Russia, Spain, Sweden

Spain ought to win the group easily, but every time you make a prediction like that about Spain, they tend to collapse like an overly intricate passing move, so who knows. Originally I would've picked Sweden to be the second team to go through, but after thinking about it a bit more I'm not so sure. I think Russia could be a real surprise this time, and I'm not just saying that because they knocked England off in qualifying. And, you know, Greece *are* the defending champions, even if they do play like the Bolton of Europe. Spain and Russia, though, if I had to call it.

GREECE
FIFA rank: 8
Odds of winning: 22-1
Coach: Otto Rehhagel
How they got here: Finished first in their qualifying group, ahead of Turkey
Past record: Beat Portugal to become Euro 2004 champions, but didn't qualify for the World Cup in 2006
Questions to ask:

• Will their obdurate style work for them again this time, or will the other teams have come up with a strategy to break them down?
  
• Can midfielder Giorgios Karagounis and striker Fanis Gekas provide the spark to complement that defensive strength?
  
• How *did* they manage to win in 2004? Really now.

Why to cheer for them: You've had one too many shots of ouzo. Opa!

RUSSIA
FIFA rank: 25
Odds of winning: 28-1
Coach: Guus Hiddink
How they got here: Finished second in their qualifying group, thanks to England's incompetence
Past record: Bottom of their group at Euro 2004; didn't qualify for the 2006 World Cup
Questions to ask:

• How much will they miss playmaker Andrei Arshavin, who's suspended for the first two games thanks to an idiotic yellow card against Andorra?
  
• Will Igor Akinfeev's quality in goal make up for the fact that the defence in front of him isn't all that good?
  
• Could the magical Guus Hiddink effect come into play here? First South Korea, then Australia, now Russia…

Why to cheer for them: Out of gratitude for bringing an end to the misbegotten reign of Steve McClaren.

SPAIN
FIFA rank: 4
Odds of winning: 5-1
Coach: Luis Aragones
How they got here: A few stutters along the way, but ended up top of their qualifying group
Past record: A disappointing third in their group at Euro 2004; lost to France in the Round of 16 at the World Cup in 2006
Questions to ask:

• With the massive amounts of talent in the team (Fernando Torres, Cesc Fabregas, Sergio Ramos, Xavi, David Villa, Andres Iniesta – really, I could just run through their whole lineup), is this finally the year that they shake off their reputation as the world's biggest chokers?
  
• How will mad-as-a-hatter Luis Aragones manage to fit all that talent onto the pitch at once? (He's already made one possibly dubious decision by axing Raul from the squad.)
  
• Will Iker Casillas finally have an aneurysm when faced with a defence even more dodgy than the one in front of him at Real Madrid?

Why to cheer for them: You're a Liverpool fan who'd like to see your players actually win something this year

SWEDEN
FIFA rank: 23
Odds of winning: 33-1
Coach: Lars Lagerback
How they got here: Qualified second in their group, behind Spain
Past record: Lost in the quarter-finals to Holland at Euro 2004; lost to Germany in the Round of 16 at the 2006 World Cup
Questions to ask:

• What kind of a boost will they get from the return of veteran Henrik Larsson?
  
• Will Zlatan Ibrahimovic produce the brilliance necessary to drag his team out of their usual so-so performance, or will he be infuriatingly crap as he so often is for Inter?
  
• Will Freddie Ljungberg and Olof Mellberg get into a training-ground fight yet again? And if so, can they sell tickets?

Why to cheer for them: They probably have the best-looking female fans, if you're into that sort of thing. I'm just saying.

Russia 2-1 England

Four minutes. That's how long it took for England to bugger up their chances of qualifying for Euro 2008.

It's been interesting today, reading all the analysis criticizing the team, because up until about the 70th minute yesterday, the commentators were going on about how this was a good performance by England: they were containing Russia reasonably well, working hard to shut them down and then hitting them on the break.

And if that's all they were trying to do -- guarantee a draw, maybe squeak a win -- then that's fine. But if they were, like Steve McClaren claimed before the game, supposed to be going all-out for the victory, then it's not good enough. And it's a dangerous strategy regardless, and one that we've seen backfire for England too many times before: they defend deeper and deeper, let teams come at them, panic and inevitably break down.

Maybe you wouldn't have expected to give up two goals to Russia. But they could've used another goal for insurance, and they weren't doing enough to create that -- you certainly can't expect Michael Owen to keep winning balls in the air against the centre backs -- and wasting those chances they did create, like Steven Gerrard from Gareth Barry's free kick early in the second half.

If he'd put that chance away, or if Micah Richards had got a toe to that free kick a few minutes later, it could have been a different game. What happened, though, was that McClaren seemed content to stick with the status quo, while Guus Hiddink reacted and put on Roman Pavlyuchenko as a substitute. That was the crucial move, as he combined with Andrei Arshavin to crank up the pressure on the jittery England defence.

First, Wayne Rooney undermined the good work he'd done earlier with a gorgeous volleyed goal, fouling Arshavin on the edge of the box and conceding a penalty. (Yes, it might have been outside the box, but then so might he have been offside for the goal.) Almost immediately, Russia had turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead, as Paul Robinson parried Alexei Berezutsky's drive straight back towards Pavlyuchenko.

Robinson was surely at fault for the second goal, but the rest of the defense has to share the blame -- there were far too many incidents where they were scrambling in the box and couldn't get the ball clear. And don't ask me why Wayne Rooney was the one who had to be back defending when he gave away that penalty, but obviously somebody else was out of position. I don't think you can point the finger at any one particular player -- although Joleon Lescott's deer-in-headlights impression makes an obvious target -- but I'm going to go out on a limb and lay some of the blame at the feet of John Terry.

Yes, I know he wasn't even on the pitch. But I can't help thinking that if he hadn't been so insistent that he'd be fit -- and the coaching staff hadn't bought into his iron man routine -- then maybe the rest of the back line wouldn't have been so shaken up in his absence. (I also might have hoped that McClaren's appalling man management wouldn't have alienated Jamie Carragher so completely, but that's another story.)

Right, so, back to the game: 15 minutes left to salvage something. McClaren makes a triple substitution, bringing on Frank Lampard, Peter Crouch and, um, Stewart Downing, but it comes across less as a bold, Mourinho-esque game-changing move, and more as "I have no fucking idea, but it's either this or Phil Neville, so what the hell." And it works about as well as you'd expect, which is to say, not at all, as the clock runs down without much happening.

The loss leaves England still in second place in the group with 23 points, between Croatia with 26 and Russia with 21. Russia have two games left, away to Israel and Andorra, while England have just one more chance, at home to Croatia. The Andorra game should be a gimme for Russia, which means that even if England beat Croatia, a Russian victory in Israel will knock them out. Now, beating Israel at home is never easy -- just look at the trouble England had there -- and it's quite possible that England could beat Croatia, but their qualification hopes are on a knife-edge right now.

The thing is, though, it wasn't actually those four minutes in Moscow that screwed them. It was the 12 months before that, when they drew at home to Macedonia and away to Israel, and lost away to Croatia. If they'd been able to pick up a few more points from those games, then this loss to Russia -- in what was always going to be a tough match -- wouldn't have been quite so crucial.

England continue to confuse me, part deux

England 3-0 Russia

Oh, Michael Owen, how we how we have missed you and your little wheely legs and your ability to actually put the ball in the net. That's three goals for him in the space of two games and -- more impressively -- two of those have even come from outside the box. Shocking, really. It makes me wonder what exactly they did to him while he was off being rehabbed for months on end. (I'm picturing the doctors hovering over his hospital bed a la The Million-Dollar Man: "We can rebuild him. Make him better, stronger..." "Taller?" Mickey pipes up hopefully. "Um, no." "Oh. Bollocks.")

Anyway, that's two solid wins in a row for England, and two good performances as a team. I'm not quite sure what to make of this, although I'm leaning towards the pessimistic expectation that they'll revert to being crap soon enough. Which is not being helped by all the speculation that has of course cropped up about whether McClaren will stck with this lineup when his choices aren't constrained by injuries.

• Micah Richards vs. Gary Neville
  
• Rio Ferdinand vs. some unnamed centre half who is able to avoid dozing off for 90 minutes straight
  
• Shaun Wright-Phillips vs. David Beckham and his dodgy ankle vs. David Bentley/Aaron Lennon/Jermaine Pennant/whoever
  
• Emile Heskey vs. Peter Crouch
  
• Michael Owen vs. Wayne Rooney vs. one of England's myriad other nippy wee strikers
  
• Gareth Barry vs. Frank Lampard vs. Owen Hargreaves

It's the latter two that worry me the most; in the other cases, I think either option is not too disastrous. But the question of who plays up front and in centre midfield is crucial to whether or not the team works. As wonderful as it is to see Owen back and scoring goals, what happens if (when) he gets injured again? I suppose in that case Wayne Rooney is the backup plan, but on the other hand, how do you justify keeping Rooney on the bench for the moment? I can justify it quite easily by saying that Rooney hasn't been scoring lately, even when he wasn;t injured, and he doesn't work particularly well with Owen, but then I am not Steve McClaren and don't have to worry about people baying for my head because I've left Manchester United's star player out of the team.

As for the midfield issue, I think it should be Steven Gerrard + either Barry or Hargreaves, depending on the opposition. I'd suggest considering Lampard as part of a 4-5-1 against certain teams, but I think it's been thoroughly proven that England don't have anyone who can play effectively as a lone striker, so that's out. And that leaves Lampard as the backup for Gerrard, rather than automatically being in the team when he's fit, and too bad if John Terry gets all pissy because his BFF can't play. The fact that Gerrard and Barry have meshed so well after a grand total of two games together -- something that Gerrard and Lampard couldn't manage in god only knows how many attempts -- says enough for me.

England continue to confuse me

I was debating whether to go to the pub to watch them against Israel on Saturday, wondering whether it'd be worth the $10 cover charge just to see them grind out another mediocre draw. Then I slept in and my decision was made for me. And then they had to go out and actually put in a decent performance for once, the bastards. 3-0! Playing like they wanted to win! Playing like a team, rather than simply a collection of overpaid assholes! Astonishing.

Today the decision about whether to watch their game against Russia has been made for me: I will be at work, probably flailing impotently at the Guardian's minute-by-minute commentary and wondering why England can't string together two good games in a row.

Russia will undoubtedly present more of a challenge than Israel, but England should still be able to beat them; sadly, I've said that plenty of times before and been proved wrong. (I read a comment from Steve McClaren after the Israel match where he said that England "made Israel look ordinary." Wrong, Steve-O. Israel are ordinary. The problem is that England have a talent for making otherwise ordinary teams look good.)

Frank Lampard and Owen Hargreaves are still carrying thigh strains (if I was Steven Gerrard, I'd be sneaking into Lampard's room every night after training and kicking him in the leg, just to make sure he stays injured and out of the way), so Gareth Barry should be partnering Gerrard in midfield again. The unknown factor is whether it'll be Emile Heskey or Peter Crouch up front with Michael Owen. I've surprised myself by not really caring either way; Heskey may mesh better with Owen, but Crouch has the valuable ability to actually score goals himself.

I probably won't bother watching any of the other games from this round, although I did catch bits and pieces over the weekend:

• Italy 0-0 France: Remarkably boring without Materazzi tempting people into assaulting him or Totti doing his idiot savant thing. At least Fabio Cannavaro seems to have learned how to defend again, though.
  
• Spain 1-1 Iceland: Only watched the first 20 minutes, by which point Xabi Alonso had been sent off (and let's be honest, he is the main reason I'm watching Spain. That and watching Iker Casillas yell at his defenders and wondering why he's cut the bottom off his jersey.) and I had been sent into a rage by the Fox commentator's inability to pronounce the players' names correctly or indeed even string three words together in a way that made sense.
  
• Sweden 0-0 Denmark: Entertaining mainly for the hilariously awesome sight of Daniel Agger squaring up to Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Also, for reasons that I don't really want to get into here, I am unable to see Ibrahimovic on screen without doing a cracked-out imitation of him in my head. ("How you know Zlatan? Zlatan knows YOUR MOM.") Yeah, don't ask.

If I were going to be paying attention to any of the other matches today, though, France v. Scotland and Portugal v. Serbia are the ones I'd pick.